I was ruminating on yesterday’s by-election results and trying to work out what it might mean for a general election. Unless some miracle happens the next GE will be fought on a first past the post basis.
Just looking at the Labour vote over the last three elections we have:
2017 - 40% of the vote 262 seats
2019 - 32.1% of the vote 202 seats
2024 - 33.7% of the vote 411 seats
In 2024 it wasn’t so much that Labour did brilliantly rather it was that Reform annihilated the Conservative vote. Letting Labour in with a large majority in parliament.
Yesterday the Greens took a large chunk of the Labour vote. Will they do so at the next GE? In which case if the centre-left vote is split the Tories might get back in - or Reform!!! Is Zak a busted flush following his defeat?
As things currently stand in my opinion the result will depend on how Labour does viz The Greens and the Conservatives viz Reform.
Two maxims to remember; Governments lose elections rather than opposition win them and secondly a week in politics is a long time.
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