What happens to former dictators? Where does Putin go?

The reason for asking this is that sooner or later, and I hope that it is sooner,  we have to start thinking about the end-game of the war in the Ukraine. From what I have read Putin is stubborn and can be brutal. He will not voluntarily give up on the course of action that he has started. I suspect that currently the chances of a "palace coup" in Russia and replacing him are very slim; particularly if he feels that he has no where to go, no escape route apart from death.

In the seventies I took a Diploma in Management Studies. I still remember the module on negotiations. One of the key points was to see things through the eyes of the people that you were negotiating with and to leave them with some "wiggle room" so that they have a positive view of the end result. As a supplier you can screw a customer just the once, as he will never come back. Work out a settlement that he is happy with and you have repeat business. Similarly from the customers perspective if you have a good supplier who makes what your business needs you want the supplier to remain in business to keep on supplying you.

What does Putin really want? If we do not understand this we have no hope of any settlement. I am not saying give him what he wants, but we need to understand what motivated him to start the conflict. If the conflict does not end in some form of negotiated settlement then there are, as I see it three possible outcomes:

1. Putin keeps shelling and bombing Ukraine and its cities until they are completely uninhabitable. Then he takes them in a somewhat Pyrrhic victory.
2. The war keeps going for many years with the Ukrainians/Russians living in a state pf perpetual conflict.
3. We slowly but surely drift into a major global conflict that engulfs us all.

There are some that say that World War 2 was a result of the punitive damages that were imposed on Germany at the end of the First War. Somehow Putin has to be persuaded that ending the conflict is in his best interests, that he has a way out. A mighty difficult task but if we do not succeed we are doomed to years of conflict and suffering.